AHR999 Indicator

How to read the AHR999 Indicator

AHR999 was designed by a Chinese Bitcoin investor specifically to help dollar-cost averaging (DCA) buyers decide when to increase or reduce their regular purchases. It combines two ratios:

Ratio 1: Current price ÷ 200-day geometric mean price (how far above or below recent trend)
Ratio 2: Current price ÷ power law fair value (how far above or below the long-term logarithmic regression)

Multiplied together, the result is a number that captures both short-term momentum and long-term valuation in a single figure.

• Below 0.45 — Deep Value — Bitcoin is trading at a meaningful discount across both short-term trend and long-term fair-value measures. Historically, this zone has appeared near some of Bitcoin's strongest long-term accumulation periods. It does not guarantee a bottom, but it often signals significantly improved risk/reward for patient buyers.
• 0.45 – 1.2 — Fair Value — Conditions are more balanced. Bitcoin is not deeply discounted, but it is also not clearly overheated relative to the model. Many long-term investors use this zone for steady DCA without urgency.
• Above 1.2 — High Risk — Bitcoin is trading above its modeled fair-value range, and upside momentum may already be well developed. New allocation has historically become less attractive in this zone, so long-term investors often slow the pace of buying and wait for conditions to cool.

The dashed lines mark the 0.45 and 1.2 thresholds so you can see how often past cycles entered each zone and how long they stayed there. Note that the AHR999 can remain in the DCA zone for extended periods during sideways markets — patience is the strategy.

Use alongside the Mayer Multiple and 200-Week MA for a more complete cycle picture.