The Bull Market Support Band is formed by two weekly moving averages plotted together:
20-Week SMA — the simple average of the last 140 daily closing prices
21-Week EMA — the exponential moving average of the last 147 daily closing prices, with more weight on recent data
Together they form a narrow band that has served as one of the most reliable trend separators in Bitcoin's history. The BTC price line is coloured by zone.
The hero value shows how far the current price sits above or below the midpoint of the two moving averages, expressed as a percentage.
≤ −25% — Deep Value — Bitcoin is far below the support band. Historically, readings this deep have appeared near major cycle lows and have marked some of the best long-term accumulation opportunities in Bitcoin's history. They do not guarantee a bottom, but suggest that most of the downside has already been absorbed.
−25% to −10% — Undervalued — Bitcoin is below the band but not at an extreme. Price has lost the band as support — a weak signal — but this zone has also appeared during late-bear recoveries. Long-term investors often treat this as a cautious accumulation environment.
−10% to +15% — Fair Price — Bitcoin is at or near the support band. This is the transition zone where the band acts as support in bull markets and resistance in bear markets. No clear extreme signal in either direction; the broader trend context matters most here.
+15% to +50% — Elevated — Bitcoin is clearly above the support band, consistent with an active bull market. The band is acting as a dynamic floor below price. New allocation is less attractive than at the band, but elevated readings alone do not signal a cycle top — bull markets can sustain this zone for extended periods.
≥ +50% — High Risk — Bitcoin is far above the support band. Historically, readings this extreme have appeared in late-cycle overextension phases. Price can continue higher, but long-term investors often become more cautious with large new allocations and may review risk at these levels.
The band is most useful as a macro trend filter. When Bitcoin is above the band, long-term investors typically hold their position and continue steady accumulation. When price falls through the band, it can signal a shift to more defensive positioning. Use it alongside the Mayer Multiple and 200-Week MA for broader trend confirmation.
The information on this page is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research before making any investment decision.