STH Realized Profit/Loss

How to read STH Realized Profit/Loss

Short-term holders are the coins that last moved within the past 155 days — recent buyers, still close to their entry price and by far the most likely group to react to a move. This chart nets the profit they lock in against the losses they take each day, divided by market cap so the number is comparable across every era of Bitcoin's history.

STH Realized P/L = (short-term holder realized profit − their realized loss) ÷ market cap

This cohort is where capitulation actually shows up. Long-term holders sit through drawdowns; recent buyers sell into them. Sharp negative spikes mean people who bought within the last few months are selling at a loss in size — painful while it happens, but historically much closer to local bottoms than to the beginning of a deeper collapse. The mirror case, sustained heavy profit-taking, marks a fast-rotating rally where new money is flipping quickly.

• Below -0.11% — Deep Value — Heavy loss realisation by recent buyers, roughly the bottom 5% of all days since 2012. Capitulation of the newest money.
• -0.11% to -0.02% — Undervalued — Net loss-taking. Recent buyers are underwater and some are giving up; more typical of corrections than of tops.
• -0.02% to +0.044% — Fair Price — Profit and loss roughly balanced. Normal two-way trading with no crowd-level stress or euphoria.
• +0.044% to +0.211% — Elevated — Above-average profit-taking, the signature of an active, liquid rally.
• Above +0.211% — High Risk — Extreme profit-taking, roughly the top 5% of days. This cohort flips to heavy loss-taking quickly when price turns.

The scale here is about twice as wide as on LTH Realized Profit/Loss, because short-term holders turn over far more of the market per day. Each page uses its own cohort's historical quantiles, so compare the two by zone rather than by value.

Pairs naturally with Holder Cost Basis Bands: the loss spikes here are what it looks like when price cuts below the short-term holder cost basis drawn there.