Supply in Profit is the percentage of circulating Bitcoin currently worth more than the price it was last acquired at. Below 50%, most holders are underwater — historically near major bear-market lows. Above 95%, nearly everyone is in profit — every major Bitcoin cycle top has occurred in this zone.
What Is Supply in Profit?
Of all the on-chain indicators on this site, Supply in Profit is one of the most intuitively understandable: for every coin currently in circulation, is it worth more or less today than it was when it was last acquired? Sum up the coins worth more, divide by the total circulating supply, and you get a single, clean percentage.
How It's Calculated
Using the same coin-by-coin cost-basis data that underlies realized price, every unspent coin is checked against current market price. If its last-acquisition price is below today's price, it counts as "in profit." The final percentage is simply the profitable coins' share of the total circulating supply.
The Euphoria Problem
What makes this metric genuinely useful is a straightforward behavioural insight: when almost the entire network is sitting on unrealized gains, the collective incentive to lock in those profits becomes very strong — and that selling pressure, building broadly across the holder base rather than any single group, has historically been a real contributor to market tops. It's a different lens than NUPL (which measures the total magnitude of unrealized profit) — this one measures the breadth: not how much profit exists, but how many holders are sharing in it.
Reading the Zones
| Supply in Profit | Zone | Historical Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Below 50% | Capitulation | Majority of holders underwater — rare, appeared only near major bear-market lows (late 2018, mid-2022, post-COVID crash) |
| 50% – 75% | Accumulate | More than half in profit but not euphoric — bear-recovery and early bull phases |
| 75% – 90% | Fair Value | Healthy majority in profit — normal condition during a constructive bull market |
| 90% – 95% | Elevated | Large share sitting on gains — often later bull-market phases |
| Above 95% | High Risk | Nearly all supply in profit — every major Bitcoin cycle top has occurred in this zone |
See today's live Supply in Profit reading on our Supply in Profit indicator page.
Limitations
It's binary at the coin level. A coin is either "in profit" or "not" — the metric doesn't distinguish between a coin that's barely profitable and one sitting on a massive multiple, which is exactly why pairing it with magnitude-based indicators like NUPL adds real value.
Lost coins add a small distortion. As with any indicator built on cost-basis data, permanently lost coins remain counted, gradually skewing the true "active" picture.
Extreme readings can persist. The High Risk zone has preceded every major top, but it hasn't marked the top immediately — sustained readings above 95% have sometimes continued for weeks before a reversal.
How to Use It
Supply in Profit is one of the more reliable single-glance warning signs available — when it's sustained above 95%, that's historically been one of the strongest reasons across all 30+ indicators on this site to become more cautious with new allocations and start thinking seriously about an exit plan. On the other end, readings below 50% have consistently marked improved long-term risk/reward for patient buyers.
It's also one of the 21 inputs to our Cycle Compass composite score.
For a broader tour of the other major indicators worth knowing, see our guide to 10 On-Chain Bitcoin Indicators Every Investor Should Know.