Supply in Profit

How to read Supply in Profit

Supply in Profit measures what percentage of all existing Bitcoin is currently worth more than when it last moved on-chain. In other words — how many coins are sitting on an unrealised gain right now. Every coin's cost basis is its price at the time it was last transferred, so this metric captures the collective financial position of the entire Bitcoin network.

Supply in Profit = (Number of coins last moved at a price below today's price) / Total supply × 100

Because this is derived entirely from on-chain transaction history — not sentiment surveys or price models — it is a direct measure of actual holder behaviour. When a large share of coins is in profit, holders have more incentive to sell. When most holders are at a loss, selling pressure eases and long-term accumulation often begins.

• Below 50% — Capitulation — The majority of Bitcoin holders are at an unrealised loss. This has been rare historically, appearing only near major bear-market lows such as late 2018, mid-2022, and the post-COVID crash. It does not guarantee a bottom, but it has consistently marked periods of significantly improved long-term risk/reward for patient buyers.
• 50% – 75% — Accumulate — More than half the supply is in profit, but the network is not collectively euphoric. This zone often appears during bear-market recovery phases and early bull markets — a reasonable environment for steady accumulation without urgency.
• 75% – 90% — Fair Value — A healthy majority of the network is in profit. This is the normal condition during a constructive bull market. Long-term investors typically continue a steady DCA strategy without urgency at this level.
• 90% – 95% — Elevated — A large share of supply is sitting on unrealised gains. This has often appeared during later bull-market phases when collective optimism is building. Consider slowing the pace of new purchases and beginning to think about your exit plan.
• Above 95% — High Risk — Nearly all Bitcoin supply is in profit. Historically, this extreme level of collective unrealised gain has preceded major corrections, because the incentive to realise those profits becomes very strong. Every major Bitcoin cycle top has occurred in this zone. Long-term investors often become very cautious with large new allocations here.

Supply in Profit is closely related to NUPL — both measure the collective profitability of the network. NUPL weights the size of each coin's gain or loss, while Supply in Profit simply counts the number of profitable coins. The two indicators tend to move together but diverge when a few large holders have very large gains or losses. Use them alongside each other for a more complete picture of market cycle positioning.