Crosby Ratio

How to read the Crosby Ratio

The Crosby Ratio answers one question: how steeply is Bitcoin's trend rising or falling right now? It was conceptualised by Bitcoin Magazine Pro and turns momentum into an angle you can compare across every market regime.

It takes the 30-day moving average of the daily close and measures how much it moved today. That move is divided by the 14-day Average True Range — Bitcoin's typical daily price swing — and converted to an angle with the arc tangent. Dividing by volatility is what makes a reading from a quiet 2023 market comparable with one from a wild 2017 market: the angle measures the trend relative to how much Bitcoin normally moves.

The red and green bands are set so that only about 5% of Bitcoin's daily history sits beyond each one. The chart starts in 2012, the first year with reliable daily high/low data.

• Below −9.8° — Oversold — The 30-day trend is falling at one of its steepest angles on record; only about 5% of days since 2012 have read this low. These readings have appeared during sharp sell-offs and capitulation phases such as November 2018, March 2020 and June 2022. They are usually brief, lasting a few days, and short-term bounces have followed somewhat more often than average. On their own they have not reliably marked cycle bottoms, so long-term investors often read them as a sign that selling is stretched rather than as a buy signal by themselves.
• −9.8° to 0° — Bearish — The 30-day trend is falling at a normal angle. Downward pressure is present but not extreme. This zone covers roughly 38% of Bitcoin's history and appears both in corrections within bull markets and in bear markets, so the broader trend context matters most here.
• 0° to +13.5° — Caution — The 30-day trend is rising at a normal angle. This is the most common state, covering roughly half of all days since 2012. Momentum is positive but not yet stretched; as the reading climbs toward the red band the move becomes more extended, so cross-checking with slower valuation indicators like the MVRV Z-Score or Mayer Multiple becomes more useful.
• Above +13.5° — Overheated — The 30-day trend is climbing at one of its steepest angles on record; only about 5% of days since 2012 have read this high. These readings have appeared during powerful rallies such as early 2013, January 2023 and the February–March 2024 run-up. Despite the name, they have usually signalled strong momentum rather than a top: episodes tend to last only a few days, and price has more often kept rising over the following months. Long-term investors often treat this zone as a sign the market is moving fast, not as a reason to sell on its own.

The band levels are recalculated from the full history, so they shift slightly as new data arrives. The values above reflect the current calculation; the live levels are shown under the reading at the top of the page.

The Crosby Ratio is a shorter-term momentum tool, not a cycle-top or cycle-bottom signal — the 2021 tops, for example, never reached the red band. Use it alongside slower valuation indicators like the MVRV Z-Score or Mayer Multiple to tell a momentum extreme inside a cheap market from one inside an expensive market.