SOPR Z-Score

How to read the SOPR Z-Score

SOPR stands for Spent Output Profit Ratio. For each coin that moves on-chain on a given day, SOPR compares the price at which it was sold to the price at which it was originally received. A SOPR above 1.0 means coins are being moved at a profit on average; below 1.0 means they are being moved at a loss.

Raw SOPR fluctuates daily. This indicator smooths it with a 30-day weighted moving average, then compares that smoothed value to a 180-day long-term baseline, and expresses the deviation as a Z-score — the number of standard deviations above or below the baseline, using a 200-day lookback window.

Z-Score = (WMA₃₀(SOPR) − WMA₁₈₀(WMA₃₀(SOPR))) / StdDev₂₀₀(WMA₃₀(SOPR))

• Below −2.0 — Deep Value — Coins being spent on-chain are realizing losses at an extreme level relative to the indicator's historical baseline. This zone is rare and has often appeared near major bear-market lows. It does not guarantee a bottom, but it may indicate improved long-term risk/reward for patient buyers.
• −2.0 to −0.66 — Undervalued — Smoothed SOPR is below its long-term baseline. Coins being spent on-chain are realizing weaker profits, or losses, compared with normal conditions. This zone often appears during market stress and can also appear while a recovery is still developing.
• −0.66 to 1.02 — Fair Price — Smoothed SOPR is close to its long-term baseline. Profit-taking or loss-realization activity is not at an extreme in either direction. Long-term investors may treat this zone as suitable for steady DCA rather than urgent accumulation or aggressive de-risking.
• 1.02 to 2.5 — Elevated — Smoothed SOPR is above its long-term baseline. Coins being spent on-chain are realizing profits at a meaningfully above-normal level. This is consistent with stronger market conditions and can appear in mid-to-late bull-market phases. Long-term investors often monitor this zone for acceleration toward overheated conditions.
• Above 2.5 — High Risk — Coins being spent on-chain are realizing unusually large profits relative to the historical baseline. Sustained readings in this zone can indicate overheated cycle conditions. Price can continue higher, but long-term investors may become more cautious with large new allocations and consider gradually de-risking or reviewing position size.

SOPR Z-Score is best used alongside other on-chain profitability indicators such as NUPL and MVRV Z-Score. While NUPL and MVRV measure the aggregate unrealised profit of all holders, SOPR specifically captures the behaviour of coins that are actively moving — making it particularly sensitive to shifts in spending behaviour during transitions between bull and bear regimes.