MVRV Z-Score

How to read the MVRV Z-Score

MVRV stands for Market Value to Realised Value. Market Value is Bitcoin's current market cap: price multiplied by circulating supply. Realised Value estimates the value of each coin at the price it last moved on-chain, creating a rough measure of the network's aggregate cost basis.

The difference between Market Cap and Realised Cap shows the network's aggregate unrealised profit or loss. The Z-Score then normalises that difference against its historical standard deviation, making it easier to compare cycle extremes across different market sizes.

• Below 0 — Deep Value — Bitcoin is trading near or below the network's aggregate cost basis. Historically, this has been rare and has often appeared near major bear-market lows. It does not guarantee a bottom, but it can indicate that long-term risk/reward has improved significantly.
• 0 – 4 — Fair Value — Bitcoin is trading within a broad historical range relative to its aggregate cost basis. There is no clear extreme signal in either direction, so long-term investors often use this range for steady DCA without urgency.
• 4 – 7 — Elevated — The network is sitting on significant unrealised gains. Historically, this zone has often appeared during stronger bull-market phases, when new allocation may carry less attractive risk/reward. Long-term investors often avoid increasing position size aggressively and may begin reviewing risk.
• Above 7 — High Risk — Bitcoin is trading far above the network's aggregate cost basis, and market optimism may be stretched. Historically, this zone has often appeared near overheated cycle conditions. Price can continue higher, but long-term investors often become more cautious with large new allocations and may use this area to review risk or gradually reduce exposure.

The MVRV Z-Score is best used as a long-term valuation and cycle-risk indicator, not as a precise top or bottom signal. Pair it with the Puell Multiple for a complementary on-chain view of market-cycle conditions.