Drawdown from ATH

How to read the Drawdown from ATH

The Drawdown from ATH shows how far Bitcoin's current price has fallen from its highest-ever closing price. It is calculated as:

Drawdown = (Current Price ÷ All-Time High) − 1, expressed as a percentage

A value of 0% means Bitcoin is at a new all-time high. A value of −70% means Bitcoin has fallen 70% from its highest recorded price.

This indicator is one of the simplest and most intuitive ways to understand Bitcoin's market cycle. Every major Bitcoin cycle has produced deep drawdowns in the bear phase, followed by full recovery and new all-time highs. The depth of the drawdown has historically correlated closely with where Bitcoin is in that cycle.

• Below −60% — Deep Value — Bitcoin is more than 60% below its all-time high. Every time this zone was reached in prior cycles, it marked a major long-term accumulation opportunity. Drawdowns of this depth typically appear near the bottom of the bear market. They do not guarantee a floor, but they suggest that most of the downside has already been absorbed and that long-term risk/reward has improved significantly.
• −60% to −5% — Fair Value — Bitcoin is in a meaningful drawdown but not at an extreme. This zone often appears during the recovery phase — after the worst of the bear market has passed but before price has reclaimed prior highs. Long-term investors typically treat this as a normal DCA environment: accumulate steadily, no urgency either way.
• Above −5% — High Risk — Bitcoin is within 5% of its all-time high. This zone has historically appeared during the later stages of a bull market, when euphoria is building and late buyers are entering. Price can continue to new highs from here, but statistically the risk/reward for new large allocations is less attractive than in deeper drawdown zones.

The drawdown indicator is most useful as a cycle context tool. Cross-check it with the Mayer Multiple and Fear & Greed Index to distinguish whether a shallow drawdown reflects a healthy bull-market pullback or the beginning of a deeper correction.

Important: The ATH used here is based on the full available price history, currently anchored to Bitcoin's highest ever closing price. As Bitcoin sets new ATHs, the reference point resets — meaning the same nominal price level can represent a different drawdown percentage depending on when you look.