Pi Cycle Top & Bottom

How to read the Pi Cycle indicator

The Pi Cycle indicator uses moving-average crossovers to identify periods when Bitcoin may be near major cycle extremes.

Top signal: The 111-day moving average is compared with the 350-day moving average ×2. When the 111DMA crosses above the 350DMA×2, it has historically aligned closely with major Bitcoin cycle peaks. The value shown is the 111DMA as a percentage of the 350DMA×2 — where 100% means the crossover has occurred.

Bottom signal: The 150-day moving average is compared with the 471-day moving average. When the 150DMA crosses above the 471DMA from below, it has historically appeared near major cycle-bottom or early recovery conditions.

• Below 34% — Deep Value — The 111DMA is far below the 350DMA×2, suggesting Bitcoin is well away from a Pi Cycle top signal. Historically, this has often appeared during bear-market, early-recovery, or early-cycle conditions. It can indicate a more attractive long-term accumulation environment, especially when supported by other indicators.
• 34% – — — Fair Value — The moving averages are still comfortably separated, and no cycle-top signal is close. Market conditions are more balanced, so long-term investors often continue their regular DCA strategy without urgency.
• — – 100% — High Risk — The 111DMA is moving closer to the 350DMA×2, suggesting momentum is becoming more extended. This has often appeared later in the cycle, when new allocation may carry less attractive risk/reward. Cross-checking with other indicators becomes more important.
• Above 100% — Top Risk — The 111DMA has reached the 350DMA×2, or the crossover may already have occurred. Historically, this zone has appeared near overheated market conditions, but it does not identify the exact top. Long-term investors often become more cautious with large new allocations and may review risk or gradually reduce exposure.

The Pi Cycle is a timing and cycle-risk tool, not a price target. It is best used to identify when caution may be increasing, rather than to predict exactly where price will go. Combine it with the 200-Week Moving Average and Puell Multiple for a broader view of Bitcoin's cycle position.