LTH Distribution Z-Score

How to read LTH Distribution Z-Score

Bitcoin classifies coins as "long-term held" once they've sat unmoved on-chain for 155 days or more — long enough that the holder is very unlikely to be a short-term trader. When long-term holders start selling, the share of supply held long-term falls; that falling share is "distribution." The raw share has drifted upward across Bitcoin's history in absolute terms — early on, very little of the supply had even existed long enough to qualify, regardless of whether that era was near a cycle top or bottom — so this chart normalizes it as a Z-Score, flipped in sign so that, like every other z-score indicator on this site, rising means riskier and falling means cheaper.

LTH Distribution Z-Score = −(LTH Supply % − its all-time average) ÷ its all-time standard deviation

LTH Distribution Z-Score rises when long-term holders are selling into rising prices and handing coins to new, short-term buyers at an above-average rate — one of the clearest and most cited signals of a maturing bull market. It falls during quiet accumulation phases, when fewer coins change hands and more of the supply "ages into" long-term status.

• Below Z = -1 — Deep Value — Distribution is well below its historical norm; supply is unusually concentrated in long-term hands. Has historically appeared near and after major bear-market lows.
• Z = -1 to -0.7 — Fair Value — Normal historical range. No extreme signal in either direction.
• Z = -0.7 to -0.3 — Elevated — Meaningful distribution underway relative to the historical average. Worth watching for signs of a broader topping process.
• Above Z = -0.3 — High Risk — Long-term holders have distributed heavily relative to their own historical norm. This has coincided with major cycle tops, including April 2021.

LTH Distribution Z-Score pairs naturally with LTH-MVRV — one tracks how much supply long-term holders control, the other tracks how much profit they're sitting on. Rising distribution alongside high unrealised profit is a classic pre-topping setup.