LTH-MVRV

How to read LTH-MVRV

MVRV (market value to realized value) measures how much collective profit or loss the network is sitting on. LTH-MVRV calculates that same idea for one specific cohort only: coins held for 155 days or more — long-term holders (LTH), the market's most patient, conviction-driven cohort.

LTH-MVRV = Current Price ÷ Long-Term Holder Cost Basis

LTH-MVRV runs on a much wider scale than the short-term-holder version, because long-term holders often bought at far lower prices — a reading of 5 or 10 isn't unusual well into a bull market. It shows how much profit conviction-driven holders are sitting on, and how strong the incentive to sell becomes as it rises: the more that unrealized profit stacks up, the more historically these are the holders who eventually start distributing into strength.

• Below 1.0 — Deep Value — Long-term holders are collectively near or below their own cost basis. Rare historically, and has appeared near major bear-market lows.
• 1.0 – 2.0 — Undervalued — Long-term holders are sitting on modest collective profit, below the broad historical norm. Often appears during recovery phases.
• 2.0 – 4.0 — Fair Value — Long-term holders are within their typical historical profit range. No extreme signal in either direction — the normal condition across most of a cycle.
• 4.0 – 7.0 — Elevated — Long-term holders are sitting on above-average unrealised profit. Has often appeared during stronger bull-market phases, when the incentive to take some profit starts building.
• Above 7.0 — High Risk — Long-term holders are sitting on extreme collective profit relative to history — a strong incentive to distribute. Has often appeared near cycle tops.

LTH-MVRV pairs naturally with STH-MVRV — the same underlying idea calculated for the market's most recent buyers instead. Watch the two together: both cohorts rising in tandem has historically been a stronger confirmation of trend than either alone. It also complements Reserve Risk Adjusted, which looks at long-term holder conviction from a different angle, and LTH Distribution Z-Score, which tracks whether long-term holders are actually acting on that profit by selling.