LTH Net Position Change

How to read LTH Net Position Change

This indicator measures whether the supply held by long-term holder UTXOs is growing or shrinking. A UTXO joins the long-term holder cohort after remaining unspent for at least 155 days. When an old UTXO is spent, its value leaves the cohort; when a younger UTXO crosses the age threshold, its value enters.

Value = LTH supply today − LTH supply 30 calendar days ago

The number is the real net position change, with the sign it has everywhere else: positive means the long-term holder cohort grew (accumulation), negative means it shrank (distribution). A positive reading does not necessarily mean long-term holders bought that amount—the age transition is mechanical, and it mostly measures maturation and retention.

The vertical axis is inverted. Negative values sit above zero and positive values below it, so this chart keeps the same visual language as the site's other indicators—high and red is distribution risk, low and green is accumulation—without having to flip the sign of the number itself.

• Below −500K BTC — Heavy Distribution — LTH supply is contracting unusually quickly. This is a strong old-coin activity signal, not a stand-alone top signal. Plots at the top of the chart. About 4.5% of days.
• −500K to −150K BTC — Distribution — Older coins are being spent faster than coins are ageing into the cohort. About 16% of days.
• −150K to +150K BTC — Balanced — The broad middle, covering about 42% of all days on record. Note the series is not centred on zero: its historical median is roughly +71K BTC of growth, so a reading in the lower half of this band already leans toward distribution.
• +150K to +500K BTC — Accumulation — Coins are ageing into the cohort faster than older coins are being spent. About 29% of days.
• Above +500K BTC — Strong Accumulation — LTH supply is expanding unusually quickly as maturation and retention dominate old-coin spending. Plots at the bottom of the chart. About 8% of days.

The 155-day echo

Because the cohort boundary is a hard age cutoff, this series contains a mechanical echo. A coin spent today leaves the cohort; if it is not spent again it re-enters exactly 155 days later. So every large distribution event is followed, about five months on, by an accumulation reading of similar size that represents the same coins ageing back in rather than any new conviction.

It is measurable: across the full history, the day-to-day change in long-term holder supply correlates −0.32 with itself at a lag of exactly 155 days, against roughly −0.05 at neighbouring lags and about zero at 120 or 200 days. The sharpest example on record is a −336K BTC day on 22 November 2025 followed by a +444K BTC day on 26 April 2026—exactly 155 days later—which pushed this chart to its all-time accumulation extreme. Before reading an extreme as a fresh signal, check whether a mirror-image move sits about 155 days earlier.

This chart uses a transparent UTXO-based 155-day cutoff. Entity-adjusted providers may cluster addresses and use a smoothed ageing curve, so their values will not match this series exactly. Pair it with LTH-MVRV to see long-term holders' unrealised profit and LTH-SOPR to see whether the old coins being spent are realising profit or loss.