Puell Multiple

How to read the Puell Multiple

The Puell Multiple was created by David Puell. It compares Bitcoin miners' current daily revenue with their average revenue over the past year:

Puell Multiple = Daily miner revenue in USD ÷ 365-day moving average of daily miner revenue in USD

Miners have ongoing operating costs, so large changes in revenue can affect their selling pressure. When the Puell Multiple is very low, miner revenue is far below its yearly average and miners may be under financial stress. Historically, these periods have often appeared near late bear-market or accumulation phases. When the multiple is very high, miner revenue is far above average, which has often appeared during overheated bull-market conditions.

• Below 0.5 — Deep Value — Miner revenue is less than half its yearly average. Historically, this has often aligned with late bear-market conditions, miner stress, and stronger long-term accumulation zones. It does not guarantee a bottom, but it can indicate that risk/reward has improved for patient buyers.
• 0.5 – 2.0 — Fair Value — Miner revenue is within its broad historical range. There is no clear extreme signal in either direction, so long-term investors often continue a steady DCA strategy without making large adjustments.
• 2.0 – 4.0 — Elevated — Miners are earning significantly more than their yearly average. This has often appeared during stronger bull-market conditions, when new allocation may carry less attractive risk/reward. Cross-checking with other indicators becomes more important.
• Above 4.0 — High Risk — Miner revenue is extremely high relative to its yearly average. Historically, this zone has often appeared near overheated phases of the market cycle. Price can continue higher, but long-term investors often become more cautious with large new allocations and may use this area to review risk or gradually reduce exposure.

The Puell Multiple is best used as a miner-revenue and cycle-context indicator, not as a precise top or bottom signal. Pair it with the Pi Cycle and 200-Week Moving Average for a broader view of Bitcoin's current cycle phase.

Note: Miner revenue is estimated using Bitcoin issuance and market price. The actual number of blocks mined per day can vary slightly, so the value should be treated as an estimate rather than a perfectly fixed measure.