NUPL

How to read NUPL

NUPL stands for Net Unrealised Profit/Loss. It is calculated as:

NUPL = (Market Cap − Realised Cap) / Market Cap

Market Cap is Bitcoin's current price multiplied by circulating supply. Realised Cap estimates the value of each coin at the price it last moved on-chain, creating a rough measure of the network's aggregate cost basis. The difference between the two shows the total unrealised profit or loss across the network. Dividing by market cap normalises the result, making it easier to compare different Bitcoin cycles.

• Below 0 — Capitulation — The network is collectively near or below cost basis, meaning many holders are under pressure. Historically, this zone has been rare and has often appeared near major bear-market lows. It does not guarantee a bottom, but it can indicate significantly improved long-term risk/reward.
• 0 – 0.5 — Hope / Optimism — Holders are in modest collective profit. There is no clear extreme signal in either direction, so long-term investors often use this range for steady DCA without urgency.
• 0.5 – 0.75 — Belief / Thrill — The network is sitting on significant collective gains. Historically, this range has often appeared during stronger bull-market phases, when new allocation may carry less attractive risk/reward. Long-term investors often become more cautious with aggressive new buying and may begin reviewing risk.
• Above 0.75 — Euphoria — The network is sitting on extreme collective profit, and market optimism may be stretched. Historically, this zone has often appeared near overheated cycle conditions. Price can continue higher, but long-term investors often become more cautious with large new allocations and may use this area to review risk or gradually reduce exposure.

NUPL is best used as a long-term profitability and cycle-risk indicator, not as a precise top or bottom signal. NUPL and the MVRV Z-Score are closely related because both are derived from the gap between market cap and realised cap. NUPL expresses that gap as a percentage of market cap, making it more intuitive. The MVRV Z-Score also adjusts for historical volatility, which can make it more useful for comparing cycle extremes. Use them together for a broader view of Bitcoin's valuation and profitability cycle.