Bitcoin Realized Price

How to read the Realised Price

The realised price estimates Bitcoin's aggregate cost basis. It is calculated by valuing each coin at the price it last moved on-chain, then dividing the total realised value by circulating supply. In simple terms, it shows the network's estimated average acquisition price — what the market roughly paid, not what Bitcoin trades at today.

Unlike spot price, which can move sharply in hours, realised price changes slowly. It rises when coins move at higher prices and falls when coins move at lower prices. This makes it a useful long-term reference point for understanding where Bitcoin's aggregate cost basis sits.

• Below realised price — Capitulation — Spot price is below the network's estimated average cost basis. Holders are collectively under pressure, and this condition has historically been rare. It has often appeared near major bear-market accumulation zones, but it does not guarantee a bottom.
• 0–100% premium — Fair Value — Bitcoin is trading moderately above realised price. Holders are in modest collective profit, but there is no clear extreme signal in either direction. Long-term investors often use this range for steady DCA without urgency.
• 100–300% premium — Elevated — Bitcoin is trading at a significant premium to realised price, and the network is sitting on large collective gains. Historically, this has often appeared during stronger bull-market phases, when new allocation may carry less attractive risk/reward. Cross-checking with NUPL and MVRV becomes more important.
• Above 300% premium — High Risk — Bitcoin is trading far above its realised price, and market conditions may be increasingly stretched. Price can continue higher, but historically this zone has often appeared near overheated cycle conditions. Long-term investors often become more cautious with large new allocations and may use this area to review risk or gradually reduce exposure.

The realised price is closely related to NUPL and the MVRV Z-Score because all three are derived from the relationship between market value and realised value. The realised price chart is often the most intuitive version: instead of a ratio or Z-score, it shows the spot price and the network's estimated cost basis as two price lines.

A useful way to read the chart: when Bitcoin trades close to realised price, the market is near its aggregate cost basis. When price moves far above realised price, conditions may be becoming overheated. When price converges with or falls below realised price, the market is often under broad stress.

If premium is defined as Price / Realised Price − 1, then it is mathematically related to NUPL as: premium = NUPL / (1 − NUPL).