LTH-SOPR

How to read LTH-SOPR

SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) compares the price at which a coin moves on-chain to the price at which it was originally received — it only counts coins that actually moved that day. LTH-SOPR calculates that same idea for one specific cohort only: coins held for 155 days or more — long-term holders (LTH), the market's most patient, conviction-driven cohort.

LTH-SOPR = Σ(value moved × price when spent) ÷ Σ(value moved × price when received), for coins 155 days or older

LTH-SOPR is easy to confuse with LTH-MVRV, but they measure different things. LTH-MVRV is unrealized — it compares live price to long-term holders' average cost basis across everything they still hold. LTH-SOPR is realized — it only looks at coins long-term holders actually spent on-chain that day. That distinction matters more here than for the short-term cohort: because long-term holders can carry coins bought years apart at wildly different prices, LTH-SOPR runs on a much wider, spikier scale than LTH-MVRV. A single very old, deeply-discounted coin waking up and getting spent can dominate an entire day's reading — a real signal (old supply is moving), but not the same thing as the whole cohort shifting behavior. That's also why the chart above uses a log scale.

• Below 1.0 — Deep Value — Long-term holders are selling at or below their own cost basis. Rare historically, and has appeared near major bear-market lows.
• 1.0 – 2.0 — Undervalued — Long-term holders are realizing modest profit on the coins they move, below the broad historical norm. Often appears during recovery phases.
• 2.0 – 4.0 — Fair Value — Long-term holders are realizing profit within their typical historical range. No extreme signal in either direction — the normal condition across most of a cycle.
• 4.0 – 7.0 — Elevated — Long-term holders are realizing above-average profit on the coins they move. Has often appeared during stronger bull-market phases.
• Above 7.0 — High Risk — Long-term holders are realizing extreme profit relative to history, often driven by very old coins moving. Has often appeared near cycle tops.

LTH-SOPR pairs naturally with STH-SOPR — the same underlying idea calculated for the market's most recent buyers instead. It also complements LTH-MVRV (the unrealized version of this same cohort) and the network-wide aggregate versions, SOPR Z-Score and SOPR Trend Signal, which don't split by holder age at all.