SOPR Trend Signal

How to read the SOPR Trend Signal

SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) compares the price at which a coin moves on-chain to the price at which it was originally received. This indicator smooths raw SOPR with an 80-day simple moving average and a 90-day exponential moving average, then, under ordinary conditions, reads the 80-day average's position on a line anchored at four points — 0.970 → 20%, 0.990 → 40%, 1.015 → 60%, 1.040 → 80% — the same segment-anchored approach Pi Cycle uses for its own moving-average ratio. The reading isn't capped at either end: below 20% or above 80% just means SOPR has pushed further past the nearest anchor, using that segment's own slope, which is itself meaningful, not a display glitch.

On top of that, the same two moving averages also drive a discrete event: the green and red vertical lines on the chart mark the exact day the 80-day average crossed the 90-day EMA while both were simultaneously past a threshold — bullish (green) when both were under 0.990, bearish (red) when both were over 1.015. A cross that happens in the normal mid-range doesn't count, so the chart stays quiet during ordinary chop instead of whipsawing on every minor wiggle. A fresh crossing takes over the headline number itself for a while, not just its label: a bullish crossing sets the reading to 0% and counts up 1% a day for 20 days, landing exactly at the 20% band boundary; a bearish crossing sets it to 100% and counts down 4% a day for 5 days, landing exactly at 80%. Either window then hands back to the ordinary anchored reading above. A new crossing of either kind always restarts its own ramp immediately, even if the previous one hadn't finished.

• 0% to 20% — Deep Value — Either counting up from a bullish crossing (0% on the day it fires, +1%/day for 20 days), or the 80-day average sitting below the 0.970 anchor on the ordinary reading. Historically clustered near deep drawdowns, though it doesn't guarantee a bottom.
• 20% to 40% — Opportunity — The 80-day SOPR average is between the 0.970 and 0.990 anchors, meaning coins moving on-chain are realizing losses on average. This zone tends to show up during market stress or while a recovery is still developing.
• 40% to 60% — Neutral — The 80-day SOPR average sits between the 0.990 and 1.015 thresholds — ordinary, mid-range profit-taking activity, not close to either extreme.
• 60% to 80% — Elevated — The 80-day SOPR average is between the 1.015 and 1.040 anchors, meaning coins are realizing meaningfully above-normal profit. Consistent with stronger market conditions and mid-to-late bull-market phases.
• 80% to 100% — High Risk — Either counting down from a bearish crossing (100% on the day it fires, −4%/day for 5 days), or the 80-day average sitting above the 1.040 anchor on the ordinary reading. Sustained readings in this territory have historically coincided with overheated cycle conditions.

Unlike SOPR Z-Score, which is built on a completely different smoothing/baseline cascade, this gauge is anchored directly to the same thresholds that gate the crossover signal — so the headline number and the vertical lines are always telling a consistent story. It's best read alongside a level-based indicator like SOPR Z-Score or NUPL, rather than as a standalone timing tool.