STH-MVRV

How to read STH-MVRV

MVRV (market value to realized value) measures how much collective profit or loss the network is sitting on. STH-MVRV calculates that same idea for one specific cohort only: coins held for less than 155 days — short-term holders (STH), the market's most recent, most reactive buyers.

STH-MVRV = Current Price ÷ Short-Term Holder Cost Basis

STH-MVRV hovers close to 1 because recent buyers' cost basis is close to the current price — that makes it a sensitive gauge of short-term stress or euphoria among the most reactive part of the market, reacting far faster than the network-wide MVRV figure.

• Below 0.85 — Capitulation — Recent buyers are collectively underwater. Rare historically, and has often appeared near major bear-market lows or sharp local bottoms during corrections.
• 0.85 – 1.0 — Accumulate — Recent buyers are close to breakeven. Often appears during recovery phases — a reasonable environment for steady accumulation.
• 1.0 – 1.2 — Fair Value — Recent buyers are in modest profit. The normal condition during a healthy market.
• 1.2 – 1.4 — Elevated — Recent buyers hold above-average unrealised gains. Common in stronger bull-market phases; consider reviewing risk.
• Above 1.4 — High Risk — Recent buyers are sitting on extreme collective profit relative to history. Has often appeared near local or cycle tops.

STH-MVRV pairs naturally with LTH-MVRV — the same underlying idea calculated for the market's most patient holders instead. A sharp move in STH-MVRV with a flat or falling LTH-MVRV often signals a short-lived local move rather than a genuine cycle shift, while both cohorts moving together has historically been a stronger confirmation of trend. This also pairs well with Reserve Risk Adjusted, which looks at long-term holder conviction from a different angle, and with MVRV Z-Score, the network-wide version of the same idea.