STH-MVRV measures the collective unrealized profit or loss held by Bitcoin's short-term holders — coins acquired within the last ~155 days. Because their cost basis sits close to current price, STH-MVRV hovers near 1 and reacts quickly to short-term swings, making it a sensitive gauge of recent-buyer stress or euphoria that the network-wide MVRV figure smooths away.
What Is STH-MVRV?
MVRV compares Bitcoin's market cap to its realized cap across the entire supply, giving one aggregate profit/loss picture for the whole network. STH-MVRV takes that same underlying idea — market value versus realized value — and calculates it for one specific cohort only: short-term holders (STH), coins that have moved on-chain within roughly the last 155 days.
Why Short-Term Holders Matter
Short-term holders are recent entrants with a shorter time horizon and a cost basis close to current price — small moves can flip them between profit and loss, and that transition has historically been closely tied to short-term market stress and capitulation events. Long-term holders, by contrast, have already weathered volatility to get where they are; their collective profit/loss state changes slowly and doesn't react the same way to a single sharp move.
Because short-term holder profit/loss is so behaviourally sensitive, STH-MVRV has become one of the more closely watched cohort-specific metrics — it captures exactly the group most likely to panic-sell or FOMO-buy in response to recent price action, well before that stress would show up in the aggregate, network-wide number.
The 155-Day Line
The dividing line between "short-term" and "long-term" holder status is commonly set at roughly 155 days since a coin last moved. That threshold isn't arbitrary — on-chain researchers found it to be roughly the point where a coin's statistical likelihood of being spent again drops off sharply, meaning coins that cross this age threshold behave meaningfully differently, on average, than coins younger than it. It's a data-derived cutoff, not a round, convenient number.
Reading the Zones
| STH-MVRV | Zone | Historical Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Below 0.85 | Capitulation | Recent buyers collectively underwater — rare, often near major bear-market lows or sharp local bottoms |
| 0.85 – 1.0 | Accumulate | Recent buyers close to breakeven — often recovery phases |
| 1.0 – 1.2 | Fair Value | Recent buyers in modest profit — normal healthy market condition |
| 1.2 – 1.4 | Elevated | Above-average unrealized gains — common in stronger bull phases |
| Above 1.4 | High Risk | Extreme collective profit relative to history — often near local or cycle tops |
See today's live STH-MVRV reading on our STH-MVRV indicator page.
How It Relates to LTH-MVRV
STH-MVRV has a direct counterpart: LTH-MVRV, the same underlying calculation applied to long-term holders instead. Because long-term holders often bought at far lower prices, their MVRV runs on a much wider scale and moves far more slowly, reflecting accumulated conviction rather than recent price action.
Watching the two together is genuinely informative: both cohorts rising in tandem has historically been a stronger confirmation of trend than either alone, while a sharp move in STH-MVRV with a flat or falling LTH-MVRV often signals a short-lived local move rather than a genuine cycle shift. See our dedicated guide to LTH-MVRV for the long-term-holder side of this comparison.
Limitations
The 155-day line is a statistical approximation. Real holder psychology doesn't switch at a precise day count — it's a useful, data-derived cutoff, not a hard behavioural boundary.
Short-term data is noisier. Because the short-term holder cohort is defined by recent activity, it's naturally more volatile and reactive than long-term aggregates — useful for catching stress quickly, but also more prone to short-lived spikes.
It's still a market-wide average within the cohort. It doesn't distinguish between, say, a short-term holder who bought yesterday and one who bought four months ago — both are lumped into the same group.
How to Use It
STH-MVRV is particularly useful for spotting short-term capitulation events within a larger trend — a sharp dip below 0.85 during an otherwise healthy uptrend has historically marked local buying opportunities, not necessarily the start of a deeper bear phase. Cross-check it against the aggregate MVRV reading and LTH Supply for the fuller cohort picture — agreement across all three adds real confidence.
It's also one of the 21 inputs to our Cycle Compass composite score.
For a broader tour of the other major indicators worth knowing, see our guide to 10 On-Chain Bitcoin Indicators Every Investor Should Know.