LTH-MVRV measures the collective unrealized profit or loss held by Bitcoin's long-term holders — coins that have sat unmoved for 155 days or more. Because these holders often bought at far lower prices, LTH-MVRV runs on a much wider scale than the network-wide figure. Deep readings below 1.0 have marked bear-market lows; readings above 7.0 have coincided with cycle tops, as accumulated profit becomes an increasingly strong incentive to sell.
What Is LTH-MVRV?
MVRV compares Bitcoin's market cap to its realized cap, giving one aggregate profit/loss reading for the entire network. LTH-MVRV takes that same underlying idea — market value versus realized value — and calculates it for one specific cohort only: long-term holders (LTH), coins that have sat unmoved on-chain for roughly 155 days or more. That threshold isn't arbitrary; on-chain researchers found it to be roughly the point where a coin's statistical likelihood of being spent again drops off sharply, marking a genuine behavioural shift rather than a round, convenient number.
Long-term holders are widely considered Bitcoin's most conviction-driven cohort. They've already sat through drawdowns that shake out less committed buyers, so tracking how much unrealized profit specifically they're sitting on is a real, on-chain-verifiable read on how much pressure is quietly building toward eventual distribution.
Why It Runs on Such a Wide Scale
Because long-term holders' coins often entered the network at prices from years earlier, their aggregate cost basis sits far below current price for most of a bull market — which pushes LTH-MVRV to values that would look extreme on the network-wide MVRV chart. A reading of 5 or 10 isn't unusual well into a strong bull run; it simply reflects how much cheaper Bitcoin was when much of the long-held supply was acquired. This is normal behaviour for the indicator, not a sign that something has broken — it's exactly why LTH-MVRV needs its own zone thresholds rather than reusing the ones built for STH-MVRV or aggregate MVRV.
The Formula
The denominator — long-term holder cost basis — is the realized price calculated using only the long-term-holder share of the supply, rather than every coin in circulation. Dividing today's price by that figure produces a ratio that's directly comparable to other MVRV-style indicators: above 1.0 means long-term holders are collectively in profit; below 1.0 means they're collectively underwater, which is rare and historically significant.
Reading the Zones
| LTH-MVRV | Zone | Historical Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Below 1.0 | Deep Value | Long-term holders collectively near or below their own cost basis — rare, has appeared near major bear-market lows |
| 1.0 – 2.0 | Undervalued | Modest collective profit, below the broad historical norm — often recovery phases |
| 2.0 – 4.0 | Fair Value | Within the typical historical profit range — the normal condition across most of a cycle |
| 4.0 – 7.0 | Elevated | Above-average unrealized profit — often appears during stronger bull-market phases |
| Above 7.0 | High Risk | Extreme collective profit relative to history — a strong incentive to distribute, has often appeared near cycle tops |
See today's live LTH-MVRV reading on our LTH-MVRV indicator page.
How It Relates to STH-MVRV
LTH-MVRV has a direct counterpart: STH-MVRV, the same underlying calculation applied to short-term holders instead. Because short-term holders' cost basis sits close to current price, their MVRV hovers near 1 and reacts quickly to short-term swings — a sensitive gauge of recent-buyer stress or euphoria. LTH-MVRV moves far more slowly and on a much wider scale, reflecting accumulated conviction rather than recent price action.
Watching the two together is genuinely informative: both cohorts rising in tandem has historically been a stronger confirmation of trend than either alone, while a sharp move in STH-MVRV with a flat or falling LTH-MVRV often signals a short-lived local move rather than a genuine cycle shift.
Limitations
The 155-day line is a statistical approximation. Real holder psychology doesn't switch at a precise day count — it's a useful, data-derived cutoff, not a hard behavioural boundary.
It's still an average within the cohort. LTH-MVRV doesn't distinguish between a holder who crossed into long-term status last month and one who has held for a decade — both are lumped into the same aggregate figure.
High readings can persist. Because long-term holders are, by definition, patient, elevated LTH-MVRV can sustain for months before any meaningful distribution actually shows up on-chain — treat it as identifying a historically favourable or unfavourable zone, not a precise timing trigger.
How to Use It
LTH-MVRV is most useful as a slow-moving background gauge of how much accumulated profit is sitting with Bitcoin's most patient holders — the group whose eventual selling has historically driven major distribution phases. Cross-check it against LTH Distribution Z-Score, which tracks whether long-term holders are actually acting on that profit by reducing their supply, and against Reserve Risk Adjusted, which measures long-term holder conviction from a related but distinct angle. Agreement across all three adds real confidence to a signal that any one indicator alone wouldn't provide.
It's also closely related to STH-MVRV — see our dedicated guide to STH-MVRV for the short-term-holder side of this comparison.
For a broader tour of the other major indicators worth knowing, see our guide to 10 On-Chain Bitcoin Indicators Every Investor Should Know.