Bitcoin's price history has often moved in a roughly 4-year rhythm around its halving schedule. The halving occurs every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years, and reduces the new Bitcoin issuance rate by half. This model divides each cycle into four broad phases based on time since the most recent halving.
Bear Market — Weeks 80–135 after halving — The post-peak decline and accumulation window. Early in this phase, price may still be elevated and downside risk can remain high. The more attractive long-term opportunity has historically appeared later in the bear phase, especially as the model approaches the transition into Recovery. Confirmation from valuation, trend, and on-chain indicators is important here.
Recovery — Week 135 after halving to next halving — The market begins moving out of the bear-market window and closer to the next halving. Historically, this transition has often been one of the more attractive periods for steady accumulation, as downside pressure may be easing while sentiment remains cautious. Long-term investors often continue DCA while watching for confirmation from broader cycle indicators.
Bull Market — Weeks 0–68 after new halving — The market enters the post-halving expansion window. Historically, this phase has often seen stronger price momentum as supply issuance falls and demand conditions improve. It can be a constructive phase, but cycle timing should still be checked against valuation, sentiment, and on-chain indicators.
Euphoria — Weeks 68–80 after halving — The late-cycle window, where optimism and speculation often become more intense. Historically, major cycle peaks have often formed near this phase, but not perfectly on schedule. Long-term investors often become more cautious with large new allocations and may use this period to review risk or gradually reduce exposure.
The vertical dashed lines mark each halving date. These phases are time-based estimates, not precise trading signals. Actual tops and bottoms can arrive earlier or later depending on liquidity, macro conditions, market structure, and investor behavior.
Use this model alongside on-chain indicators such as NUPL, MVRV Z-Score, and Puell Multiple for a broader view of Bitcoin's cycle position.
The information on this page is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research before making any investment decision.