STH-SOPR

How to read STH-SOPR

SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) compares the price at which a coin moves on-chain to the price at which it was originally received — it only counts coins that actually moved that day. STH-SOPR calculates that same idea for one specific cohort only: coins held for less than 155 days — short-term holders (STH), the market's most recent, most reactive buyers.

STH-SOPR = Σ(value moved × price when spent) ÷ Σ(value moved × price when received), for coins under 155 days old

STH-SOPR is easy to confuse with STH-MVRV, but they measure different things. STH-MVRV is unrealized — it compares live price to recent buyers' average cost basis across everything they still hold, whether or not they're doing anything with it. STH-SOPR is realized — it only looks at the coins recent buyers actually spent on-chain that day, and the profit or loss they locked in by doing so. STH-MVRV can sit elevated for weeks with nobody selling; STH-SOPR only moves when people actually act.

• Below 0.98 — Capitulation — Recent buyers are selling at a steep collective loss. Rare historically, and has often appeared near major bear-market lows or sharp local bottoms during corrections.
• 0.98 – 0.995 — Accumulate — Recent buyers moving coins are close to breakeven. Often appears during recovery phases — a reasonable environment for steady accumulation.
• 0.995 – 1.01 — Fair Value — Recent buyers are realizing modest profit on coins they move. The normal condition during a healthy market.
• 1.01 – 1.03 — Elevated — Recent buyers are realizing above-average profit on the coins they move. Common in stronger bull-market phases; consider reviewing risk.
• Above 1.03 — High Risk — Recent buyers are realizing extreme profit relative to history on the coins they move. Has often appeared near local or cycle tops.

STH-SOPR pairs naturally with LTH-SOPR — the same underlying idea calculated for the market's most patient holders instead. It also complements STH-MVRV (the unrealized version of this same cohort) and the network-wide aggregate versions, SOPR Z-Score and SOPR Trend Signal, which don't split by holder age at all.